At the time of writing on 10 October 2023, silver (XAG/USD) prices dropped by more than 17% compared to this year’s highest value of 26.12 USD per troy ounce. It is worth noting that the quotes reached this level on 5 May 2023.
Today, we will examine silver price performance, list the primary drivers of its potential growth, conduct a technical analysis of its price chart, and study expert forecasts for 2023 and 2024.
In early 2023, silver prices reached 23.96 USD per troy ounce. In January, the quotes were squeezed within a price range of 23.10-24.50 USD. They broke the lower boundary on 3 February and hit the 19.90 USD mark on 10 March, developing bearish momentum.
On 14 March, silver traded near 21.70 USD. The price set a new annual high, reaching 26.13 USD on 5 May. However, after forming a Double Top reversal pattern on 26 May, the value decreased to 22.67 USD.
From mid-June to September inclusive, the quotes were squeezed within a forming Triangle pattern with the upper boundary at 25.10 USD and the lower at 22.25 USD. The lower boundary was breached on 2 October, with prices hovering at 21.10 USD at the time of writing. Based on the above information, it can be observed that silver has been demonstrating a moderate downward trend since early May 2023.
According to a report by The Silver Institute, the industrial sector’s share in total demand for silver was 50% in 2023. Industrial demand for silver peaked in 2022, totalling 556.5 million ounces, which exceeded the 2021 figure by 5%. The Silver Institute forecasts an upturn in industrial demand for silver in 2023 up to 576.4 million ounces, which is 4% higher than the statistics for 2022.
It is worth noting that nearly all regions saw an increase in industrial consumption of silver in 2022, except for Europe, whose indicator dropped by 6%. Leaders in growing demand were India – +24%, East Asia – +7%, and North America – +6%.
Experts at The Silver Institute highlighted primary drivers of industrial demand for silver, such as GDP growth, increased investments in solar cell panels, development of 5G technology, recovery in demand for consumer electronics, and increased car output.
Demand for silver bars and coins rose by 22% in 2022 from 2021, achieving its highest value of 332.9 million ounces. As forecasted by The Silver Institute, investments may fall by 7% from a record level down to 309 million ounces. Possible factors include market saturation, investors’ disappointment due to the depreciation of this metal, and changes in Germany’s tax legislation. According to Chilean state agency Cochilco, a decline in silver demand might reach 9.4% in 2023 primarily because of reduced activity among Indian private investors.
Demand for silver jewellery increased 29% in 2022 compared to the statistics for 2021, reaching an all-time high of 234.1 million ounces. Experts at The Silver Institute note a surge in demand in India, driven by post-COVID-19 consumption and retail trade recovery.
Italy, Thailand, Indonesia, and Turkey also significantly increased demand during the post-coronavirus export recovery. Analysts at The Silver Institute expect demand for silver jewellery to fall by 15% to 199.5 million ounces in 2023 compared to the 2022 figure.
Global demand for silverware surged by 80% in 2022 from 2021, reaching a record value of 73.5 million ounces since 2010 (The Silver Institute has released relevant reports since this year). Similar to silver jewellery, this upturn is attributed to India, where demand soared by more than 100% thanks to the return of employment and incomes to pre-pandemic levels.
According to the IMF and the World Bank, out of large economies, India’s economy grew at the fastest pace in the world from June to August 2023. As predicted by The Silver Institute, the demand for silverware from India could decrease by 30% in 2023 compared to the 2022 figures, with a potential for a global decline of 24%.
Silver quotes have been trading within a descending channel from August 2020 to October 2023. Buyers struggled to gain a foothold above the upper channel boundary several times in April, July, and September 2023. A breakout of this boundary would allow the prices to head towards the 30 USD level. However, pressure from bearish traders proved significant, and the quotes were hovering in the middle of a bearish channel at the time of writing.
Despite falling prices, the quotes are testing a strong support area at 21.25 USD. A signal for a potential price rise could be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bearish channel. It is crucial for buyers to gain a foothold above the resistance level at 22.50 USD. In this case, the nearest growth target could be the 24.00 USD mark where the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel is located.
The second signal confirming a potential increase in silver price could be a rebound of the RSI values from the support level. The previous rebound from this level triggered a price rise from 19.90 to 26.08 USD on 8 May 2023. A new signal is also likely to send the price up. If buyers manage to leave the descending channel’s boundaries with the price secured above 26.00 USD, the quotes could rise to the next resistance level at 30.00 USD.
A negative scenario for bullish traders might be a breakout of the lower boundary of the descending channel, with the price finding a foothold below 20.00 USD. In this case, the price could drop to 17.00 USD, where the lower boundary of a long-term bearish channel is located.
- Janie Simpson, managing director at ABC Bullion, expects the price of silver to head towards 30 USD in 2023. She believes that buyers might face significant resistance at this level
- The Physical Gold portal predicts that the price of silver will rise to 27 USD due to advancements in technology driving demand
- According to a Reuters poll, silver is expected to have an average price of 23.52 USD in 2023 and 25.00 USD in 2024. However, it is worth noting that concerns over China’s economic outlook might exert downward pressure on the quotes
- Philip Newman, managing director at Metals Focus, forecasts that the average price of silver could reach 22.70 USD in 2023. He says that a supply deficit may not be sufficient to drive the price significantly higher
- J.P. Morgan’s experts expect the price of silver to reach 26 USD in 2023. They believe that stable demand for the precious metal in the coming months could have a substantial impact on its price
Silver prices experienced a significant decline from May to September 2023 inclusive. According to The Silver Institute, global demand for investments in silver, silver jewellery, and silverware is expected to drop in 2023. However, it is noted that industrial demand for the precious metal is likely to see a modest increase.
Experts provide mixed forecasts for 2023-2024 silver prices with potential values ranging from 22.70 USD to 30.00 USD.
Technical analysis of the silver price chart shows that the metal price could rise to 22.35 USD, with a potential for a test of the 24.00 USD level once this threshold is breached. Robust development of a bullish trend is only expected after the price stabilises above 26.00 USD, which is the condition for reaching the buyers’ target of 30.00 USD.
* – Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future performance.
The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments.